The White Smoke Not Seen…Nuclear Shutdown

Photos linked from: Institute for Science and International Security

One week after the adoption by UN General Assembly of the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, satellite photos confirm that there is no flume of smoke arising from the cooling tower of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor in North Korea, an indication that the reactor has been shut down. Possible reasons range from technical difficulties associated with the aging 5-megawatt reactor to an attempt by North Korea to obtain fissile material for nuclear warheads by extracting plutonium from spent fuel rods. If the latter proves true, North Korea’s provocative move heats up a precipitous environment in which North Korea threatens to use “invincible deterrent force built up for scores of years” upon aggressors.

North Korea is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (entry into force 5 March 1970), which requires signatory nations to negotiate “safeguard agreements” with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA inspected the Yongbyon complex in 1992 to incomplete satisfaction and reported inconsistencies between what was reported and what limited inspections uncovered. With mounting tensions over North Korea’s lack of cooperation and compliance, then US President Jimmy Carter negotiated a bi-lateral agreement, known as the Agreed Framework of 1994. In addition to reiterating the need for North Korea to remain a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the agreement called for the cessation of nuclear operations at the Yongbyon complex in exchange for annual fuel aid and two light-water nuclear reactors, which are less capable of producing weapons-grade materials. The Yongbyon nuclear reactor was shut down in 1994 and remained inactive until February 2003 when North Korea restarted it and refused any oversight by the IAEA or foreign intervention. Experts predicted that it would take approximately one year to produce enough plutonium for a nuclear weapon. Adding to the current concern, North Korea declared in January 2003 that it was no longer bound by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has refused, along with India and Pakistan, to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

North Korea has not confirmed the shutdown or the reasons. Is North Korea merely experiencing difficulties with the reactor? Did North Korea intentionally shut down the reactor to provide the appearances of nuclear capabilities and to create a political bluff against US warnings of UN Security Council action implied by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in March? Or is North Korea really harvesting plutonium to use as part of its “deterrent force”?

As happened in the world’s smallest nation this week, the world awaits the sign of a plume of white smoke.

Organizations

International Treaties

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (entry into force 5 March 1970)
Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (entry into force 8 February 1987)
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) (120 states have ratified, anticipated entry into force)

Articles and Additional Resources